Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.872019 14.535779 16.463725 18.896060 21.932230 25.667529 30.728327
2024-10-13 10.475422 12.370475 14.733918 17.985625 22.496851 28.801159 38.846067
2024-10-20 8.990080 10.896296 13.379967 16.986976 22.352708 30.559702 45.396345
2024-10-27 7.969300 9.840519 12.357267 16.163440 22.141860 31.989870 51.903322
2024-11-03 8.040113 10.222237 13.309724 18.302514 26.919526 43.203069 84.695420
2024-11-10 7.768784 10.079354 13.467633 19.222575 29.904875 52.546538 124.672151
2024-11-17 7.119114 9.320158 12.600225 18.298868 29.250078 53.841349 142.647817
2024-11-24 6.737718 8.921914 12.244273 18.187931 30.148209 59.241482 186.546982
2024-12-01 6.368894 8.510598 11.822503 17.891232 30.585132 63.716397 239.177978
2024-12-08 6.091008 8.216014 11.558898 17.841412 31.544758 70.284968 333.346135
2024-12-15 5.892948 8.029406 11.453241 18.069763 33.202721 80.271141 538.192555
2024-12-22 5.618878 7.703642 11.083260 17.729788 33.403004 85.407097 768.159959
2024-12-29 5.397915 7.464070 10.867150 17.726114 34.624311 96.430085 1566.805741
2025-01-05 5.069573 7.032192 10.283884 16.898429 33.469950 96.485847 2152.096387
2025-01-12 4.756942 6.610200 9.690895 15.990275 31.923360 93.893448 2600.925217
2025-01-19 4.491442 6.253460 9.193244 15.239300 30.695384 92.367624 3405.723170
2025-01-26 4.623436 6.558667 9.903809 17.186132 37.943170 148.387580 NaN
2025-02-02 4.590206 6.582414 10.098313 18.019819 42.223168 201.899142 NaN
2025-02-09 4.361221 6.258471 9.611353 17.182824 40.426155 196.197747 NaN
2025-02-16 4.232399 6.102177 9.436606 17.082153 41.314614 222.703583 NaN
2025-02-23 4.093280 5.921582 9.203489 16.812754 41.508344 243.216847 NaN
2025-03-02 3.987434 5.794433 9.066575 16.767497 42.583879 282.155765 NaN
2025-03-09 3.914376 5.721438 9.031089 16.974886 44.792754 356.827429 NaN